A memo to IBB
M. O. Ené
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Thursday, April 13, 2006
Dear IBB:
I
apologize for my choice of straight salutation, but that is how many
Nigerians address you in everyday exchanges -- friends and foes alike. Talking
of friends and foes, my knowledge of the person of General Ibrahim Badamosi
Babandiga (rtd.) comes mostly from them. I have met many Nigerians who have had
close encounters with you: men, women, children, soldiers, civilians, etc. I
find it intriguing that many have no standard sentiments: You are either the
epitome of excellence (amiable, benevolent,
compassionate, and a darling) or the expression of evil (callous, crafty,
cruel, and cunning). To a huge percentage of the
rest, you are an enigma exemplified. I am not going to join issues with any
camp; I will rather subscribe to the seven blind men in their appreciation of
the elephant and admit that you are what you are to those who have touched you
the right way, the wrong way, or not at all. In other words, I am staying with
conventional wisdom; as is the case with many mere mortals, you have the good
and the bad built into you in varying doses.
I am not writing to analyze your person. I have seen and read a lot about you. I just tried a little icebreaker. Moi? Je m’appelle MOE, M. O. Ené; everything else is embellishment. As a keen observer and avid reader, I note that your pronouncements of Wednesday, March 22, 2006, marked the second time you indicated perceptible interest in contesting the presidency in 2007. The first time was on Saturday, November 20, 2004, during the visit of a 50-person delegation led by Dr. Larry Egbuchulam, chair of the Nigerian Project, USA Chapter. [Vanguard Online, Monday, November 22, 2004: “I won't disappoint my supporters in 2007, says IBB”] Your latest announcement, coming when everyone but Governor Orji Kalu had become intimidated, has galvanized the grassroots against the third-term agenda and empowered more legislators to kick against the move openly. It also caught caustic critics off-guard. As you could imagine, Nigerian communities, forums, and pepper-soup/isiewu joints are buzzing again with all sorts of political permutations plastered on plots probable and improbable. Therefore, I write to add to the raging debate as you approach that fork in the road to Nigeria 2007.
Just as I could not easily settle on excellence, evil, enigma, or mere mortal moniker, I find it hard buying any of the circulating scenarios. Many supporters see in you a modern messiah, while many detractors refuse you the moral right to contemplate stepping back to Aso Rock! I disagree with both camps. First, no mere mortal is a messiah, and I hate it when people configure celestial celebrities out of politicians; secular messiahs scare the hell out of me for obvious reasons. Secondly, as Niccolo Machiavelli put it, “Politics has no relation to morals.” As far as I am concerned, the moment anyone decides to lead others, morality flies away. Vladimir Lenin posited, “There are no morals in politics; there is only expedience. A scoundrel may be of use to us just because he is a scoundrel.”
In
other words, I believe that every Nigerian has the right to aspire to serve,
within INEC’s statutes, whenever they become law; however, I do not think “to
serve” is the same as “to become president.” Not to inject my personal views
into the matter, I have taken the liberty to classify the popular projections
under different categories of deals. You see, power in Nigeria is a pact of
sorts, a game as in the famous photo with President Olusegun Obasanjo.
1. OLD DEAL
The old deal is simple: You recruited and installed General Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ) as president to appease the Yoruba for four years. Thereafter, you would step right back into Aso Rock, from whence you had stepped aside following the June 12, 1993 fiasco. Thanks to General Abdulsalami Alhaji Abubakar, it was a piece of pie. Blinded by barracks brotherhood, you bypassed bloody civilian Olu Falae and installed the other son of Oduduwa. You soon found out that the presumed cowardly OBJ of 1979 is not the presumed demure OBJ of 1999. Four years later, OBJ surprisingly stuck to the sweetness of power. You tried to soften him up in 2003 with shaky steps, but OBJ proved to be a better fox. Let us face it: OBJ outfoxed IBB in 2003. You withdrew your army and planned for another day. [By the way, what was the deal with Ide Orumba -- Dr. Alex Ekwueme? Never mind, the story shall emerge some day.]
You started early in 2004 to pilot your claim to the crown. It must have come as a surprise, a rude shock, this school of thought believes, to discover that OBJ had plans to perpetuate himself in power. You must have said to yourself, “How could I have missed the trick of this man from the tribe of tortoise, where no two tortoises trade?” Indeed, how could you have been so sucker-punched by another general who is not famous for his quick wits? How could a great reader of the human mind, a great judge of character, and a master player miss such traits in the man called OBJ? Then again, the man OBJ did not get this far in Nigeria’s peripatetic politics by being dumb. Therefore, this school believes that you are sticking to the old deal to stay ahead of the game and that everything we see is just a part of the game to secure a third-term for OBJ. How? You would step out to run, and OBJ would turn around and tell the remaining refuzniks in the Senate, “Would you prefer IBB?” I doubt this version because it would backfire easily, but Nigeria is a country where strange things happen normally. I doubt it because Nigerians will not fall for it after eight years of Babacracy; they could call OBJ’s bluff.
2. NEW DEAL
The
deal here is simple: It appears as if the old deal is definitely dead and that a
new game must begin. The new-deal pushers agree that you are still embedded with
OBJ, even with the surprising anti-establishment posture you appear to have
taken. Here is an example of how they project the power play: Malam Nuhu Ribadu
of EFCC would move against you. If this happens, the media would no longer call
for your head for alleged past misdeeds; rather, the keen Nigerian sense of
justice would kick in and make EFCC the bully trying to stop a legitimate
opposition to the third-term turmoil. In effect, up North and down South, Ribadu
would succeed in kicking off your campaign! OBJ would then back off and allow
you to sail on the current of newfound political momentum. Before we wake up,
you are once again President IBB. In effect, OBJ would have delivered to you as
agreed in the old deal.
In effect, with the third-term project, OBJ would have created a magic broom on which you would zoom back into the national heart as the hero they knew from Friday, February 13, 1976, when late Colonel Bukar Dimka provided the podium that catapulted you to limelight. Forget that you actually disobeyed General T. Y. Danjuma’s orders to “level up” the radio station and the drunken Dimka: You chose to talk him out of the station, and OBJ saved your career, allegedly. Fast-forward 30 years to 2006, members of the National Assembly now wax strong and voice their opposition to the third-term plot, just as Max Gbanite had prayed in his memo. [See Open Memo to Members of the National Assembly: Third-Term Agenda] Before we know it, the modern-messiah movement would say they told us so.
3. REAL DEAL
This is the tough one, a rough deal. The take here is that OBJ would allow you to step out and gauge the reaction of Nigerians, hoping that you would not go far, and he would hasten to install one of his steadfast governor godsons. If true, then OBJ misjudged because you are not retired General Muhammadu Buhari, who could not forge a credible opposition. You are different, a brand name -- loved or loathed; you could charm your critics and make your friends eat off your feet. As a master of Nigeria’s political power play, you could turn the deal into a credible campaign cabal facing a risible, ragtag opposition of political neophytes.
If the real deal pans out your way, and OBJ steps down (forget aside, not any more), you would soak the goodwill, take control of PDP, go on to emerge as its presidential candidate and, of course, the president. Alternatively, OBJ could still step aside but hold on to PDP and dare you to found another party. This is where the dream-deal discourse kicks in.
4. DREAM DEAL
There are two versions of this deal, and I must
admit that a version of this deal is closer to my heart, even if unpopular
within your campaign circles. The first option is that you would dump PDP and
push for an amalgamation of all other major parties: AD, ANPP, APGA, NDP, UNPP,
etc. It takes no political philosopher or pundit to know that you would easily
emerge as the flagbearer with, say, Senate President Ken Nnamani as the running
mate (if he stops third term) and Alhaji Tinubu slated for Senate Presidency.
You promise Ndiigbo that you would serve only one term and then hand over to
Nnamani. It might not happen, but many would swallow the bait, especially after
the Jolt of the Joes (Joe Irukwu and Joe Achuzia bailing out the so-called “Igbo
presidency” project). The Yoruba would grab what they can before the minorities
know what the Wazobians have done. On the other side (PDP), Vice President Atiku
Abubakar and Governor Orji Kalu would sort themselves out after a bruising
battle with Obasanjo and or retired Brigadier Mohammed Buba Marwa, if OBJ would
wait to slug it out in the primaries and not have Mr. Fix-It pave the path with
petro-pebbles.
The other version of the dream deal has it that you could decide to be a true hero and make it clear that you are not contesting for the presidency per se, that you are in it to make Nigeria whole again and to achieve your principal legacy. No, your key legacy is not the freest and fairest election ever because, by annulling the same election, you simply snatched knocks from the corner of kudos. Your key contribution is the realization that politics in Nigeria is more about persons, not particularly policies; so you brought in the idea of two major political parties: one, a little to the left and, the other, a little to the right. That was a brilliant masterstroke. Alas, it was gelled with executive fiat, and Nigerians hate force-fed philosophy. Today, you could step back and make it happen with the prevailing popular will to cut PDP down to size.
You must have thought about this when you reportedly said in April 2005, “I don’t believe it is fair that once you go into politics, you want to contest. You can go into office, not necessarily looking towards an elective office… Now, by my philosophy I wouldn’t want to be seen as somebody stepping into politics for the sole purpose of contesting as President, but as somebody stepping into politics for the sole purpose of making contributions. If in the process of politicking, the politics throws you up, that is a different thing entirely. As to whether I am running or not in 2007, I will be part of 2007 politics. Let’s leave it at that.” Please, say no more; do no more!
Assuming you take on the mantle of instituting a powerful political setup that would challenge the arrogance of PDP, the arrogance of screening out members in a political party, and the arrogance of rigging with impunity. Assuming you institute a truly national party that is oiled by dedicated membership and 24/7 open-door policy? If this happens, you could sit back and play the Godfather! Oops, wrong word? I don’t think so. Owele Zik was a godfather. Pa Awo was a godfather. Sarduana Bello was a godfather. In essence, you could emerge a national godfather and Hilltop Mansion in Minna would become a political Mecca, as it is already becoming, until a comparative PDP Mecca emerges elsewhere, say in Ota, Ogun State.
The
question then is: Whom would you anoint? A northerner would be out of the
question. A South-south minority such as Professor Pat Utomi would fly. And he
is an in-law. If for nothing else, we would have the first president with a
regular four-year university education and a non-big-three politician. If
nothing else, Utomi would secure Anioma State, make his people whole again, and
keep the Igbo brethren across the Niger smiling. To make up for his lack of
military experience, you could draft your trusted retired Colonel Abubakar Umar
to hold the defense fort or run as the VP. Then you could sit back and savor
your promise: “I will not allow my children, grandchildren, my relations, my
well-wishers and friends, I will not leave them in limbo. I will leave something
behind that even after my death, they will be able to protect or to speak
about.” Now, this is really something to speak about, not how many years you
spent at the helm: eight is a great number; let OBJ keep his 8 +3 and Gowon, his
9. Neither Murtala Muhammed nor Thomas Sankara served for a decade, yet history remembers
them more
kindly than the Kamuzu Bandas and the Gnassingbe Eyademas.
CONCLUSION
Your recent emergence has not crippled the third-term turmoil, but it has dented its vivacity. President Obasanjo’s “no maneuverer-no manipulator” speech in New York on Thursday, March 30, 2005, after meeting with President Bush the day before, shows that he (Obasanjo) is not so determined after all to die in Aso Rock; his drummers are just working too hard. It could be that OBJ would want to pull the rug from under your feet for raining on his life-presidency party, but you struck first; the first cut is usually the deepest. You have achieved a lot already by making a simple statement. Imagine the more you could achieve by being on the side of the people for their sake, not apparently for your sake. At this point in your life, you should be thankful to Allah for keeping you with Nigerians at home in Minna, and not in a Charles Taylor post-presidency predicament or in a cemetery-champion condition.
Your modern-messiah disciples might feel left out and even disappointed if you choose the road less traveled, the Mandela Boulevard that is paved with loud applause and eternal gratitude. Let them go out and campaign for offices with your support; they will serve themselves and Nigeria better than hanging around and waiting to become ministers, ambassadors, special assistants, senior advisers, and sundry hangers-on and influence-peddlers in the corridors of power.
As the Igbo would say, Anya saa! [Eyes wide-open!] Driving with closed eyes or with an eye on the wrong side of the road -- even when your heart is in what you are doing -- will not get Nigeria very far. It is that simple. The choice is yours.