KWENU: Our Culture, Our Future

The Upcoming PDP Presidential Primary and the Future of Nigeria:

Will it be Jonathan or Abubakar

Dr. EJIKE OKONKWO

iokonkwo@comcast.net

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

In less than two days, People Democratic Party (PDP) will conduct its presidential primary elections. The contestants are Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The two aforementioned major aspirants are working arduously to secure PDP nomination. In the end, only one of them will emerge victorious. As bitter as the fight between the two might be and as venomous as the innuendos between the camps might be prior to the primary, I expect that whoever emerges as the loser will let bygone be bygone and work for the winner of the primary for the ultimate goal PDP, which is to win 2011 presidential election. It takes humility in victory and graciousness in defeat to achieve party unity after a hotly contested primary. It is doable. It has been done in the past. Secretary Hilary Clinton and President Barack Obama set a very good example of what I am talking about.

In a primary election of this nature, it is generally difficult to find any party member that is neutral. I am certain that most of the party delegates have made up their minds about who to vote for. I too am an ardent supporter of one of the candidates. The candidate that I have in mind is the best among all the PDP candidates. Before I disclose the identity of my candidate, I have to elicit the factors that influenced my choice. The factors include the following: honesty, patriotism, experience, capability, intelligence, judgment, values, humility, trustworthiness, patience, reputation, and geopolitical fairness. I have to admit that finding a Nigerian politician that possesses all the attributes that I mentioned will be an uphill battle. However, if the reputations of the two candidates are placed side by side and compared, the differences between them will become conspicuous. A major problem in politics is that supporters choose their candidates on emotional basis rather than on logical basis. Some of the delegates who are heaping their support for the two candidates cannot even explain their reasons for supporting their candidate.

To supplant emotion with logic, PDP delegates must scrutinize these candidates well. It is my wish that all the PDP delegates will analyze the similarities and the differences between these two candidates before making their final stand. Regardless of the impact of monetary inducement in Nigeria politics, I believe that the best candidate will emerge as the flag-bearer of PDP if the reputations of the candidates are weighed against the factors that I elicited above. To ensure that you are making judicious use of your conscience and to spare yourself of future regrets, each delegate should spend a few minutes to examine the character and leadership qualities of these candidates before voting for them.

Let’s take a look at the attributes that I elicited above. The first attribute is honesty. Whereas it is difficult to find a truly honest politician, it is not difficulty to find politicians that have thick clouds of dishonesty swirling over their heads. Alhaji Abubakar still has questions to answer with respect to his involvement in the bribery scandal that has led to conviction of a United States Congressman. The Congressman in question is William Jefferson of Louisiana. (See the following article http://www.portfolio.com/news-market...-Bribery-Case/ ). Also, Alhaji Abubakar has not fully exonerated himself from the allegation of embezzlement of Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF). Understandably, most Nigerian politicians are corrupt. However, Alhaji Abubakar has not been able to convince any living being that he is innocent of the two allegations that I mentioned above. Also, there is the issue of the fifty three suite cases that were improperly cleared at Murtala Mohammad Airport during General Buhari’s administration (I don’t have the full detail of this story at the moment but this story definitely helps to thicken the cloud that is hanging over his head).

Let’s take a look at the second factor (patriotism). Both of these candidates are patriotic. I have no doubt that both GEJ and Abubabar are patriotic Nigerians. I am sure that both candidates want the Nigerian nation to succeed as a state. Both candidates have supported the use of force in the Niger Delta at different times. Despite being an indigene of the Niger Delta, GEJ has supported the use of force in the region. He has also unleashed military actions in the region at least twice. For him to support or order the use of military force in the region implicitly demonstrates that he is patriotic and that issues that are at variance with the security of the nation be must be given paramount priority.

On experience, everyone knows that both of them have been vice presidents. However, Jonathan has been the President of Nigeria for about one year. As the President, he has the supreme opportunity of meeting and dialoging with world leaders on regional and world issues. He is the only Vice President of Nigeria that metamorphosed to President. In addition, GEJ was the Governor of Beyelsa State for about two years. Abubakar, on the other hand, was the Vice President of Nigeria for eights years. Eight years of experience as the Vice President of Nigeria should by no means be trivialized. However, Jonathan has enjoyed the opportunity of being at the helm of affairs of both the nation and Bayelsa State. Abubakar has never been at the helm of a government at the national level. Without question or doubt, Dr. Jonathan has an edge over Abubakar on experience.

GEJ has consistently demonstrated that he is capable of piloting the affairs of nation when the sun is shining and when the sky is gloomy. When President Yar’Adua left the country to Saudi Arabia for treatment and became incommunicado showed some of his leadership qualities. Despite insinuations and salacious statements in the media and brouhaha that greeted Yar’Adua’s absence, GEJ kept his cool and continued to pilot the affairs of the nation undistracted. A President should be able to pilot the nation’s affairs in both fair whether and bad whether. GEJ has the natural ability to stay focused during good and bad times. Atiku Abubakar was the Vice President for eight years. However, as a result of trust issues between him and former President Obasanjo, he was never given the chance to prove that he can be an effective leader.

Both GEJ and Abubakar are intelligent. Both are educated. GEJ is more educated than Abubakar in terms of formal education. However, formal education is not the only factor that is used to determine a person’s intelligence. Both have demonstrated that they can deal with complex issues. When President Obasanjo was scheming for unconstitutional third-term, Abubakar was able to checkmate him. It was a nasty and bruising fight but Alhaji Ababakar prevailed in the end. He was also able to prevent President Obasanjo from orchestrating his removal from office. Despite all the travails that he went through, he was able to navigate the troubled water rather smartly. GEJ is also a very intelligent person. As the President of Nigeria, GEJ has handled many complex issues well. The question is no longer whether he can deal with complex issues but how well he can do it. Nigeria itself is a complex state and GEJ has demonstrated that he is an effective leader. No Nigerian should question his acumen.

On the question of which candidate has demonstrated good judgment now and in the past, one of the candidates is a clear winner. Ababakar has not always shown good judgment. There have been umpteenth times that he has demonstrated a clear lack judgment. Many people believe that his political predicament today was the result of several bad judgments in the past. Many believe that he could have been the president of Nigeria today if he had demonstrated good judgment in the past. A case in point is what happened during the 2003 PDP presidential primary. First and foremost, it was wrong for him to work against his boss (bad judgment #1). Secondly, when his treachery was uncovered, he could have stayed the course but he didn’t (bad judgment #2). If it wasn’t for his bad judgment, President Obasanjo could have supported his presidential ambition in 2003. It has been speculated that one of the reasons that Obasanjo gunned for the failed third term project was that didn’t want to hand over to Abubakar. GEJ has shown that he can sound judgment. He has never given his bosses the impression that he is ambitious (I believe that he is). This was evident when he was the Deputy Governor of Bayelsa as well as when he was the Vice President of Nigeria. On the other hand, Abubakar’s ambition always eclipses his judgment. In addition, it was deplorable see that Abubakar had the temerity to visit Obasanjo to beg him for forgiveness despite the denigrating treatment that was meted to him when he was the Vice President (bad judgment #3).

GEJ and Abubakar are nice individuals by Nigerian and African standards. GEJ is a monogamist (for now) and Abubakar is a polygamist. Although people in advanced countries have unfavorable view of polygamy, I have no qualms with polygamy since it is allowed by Islam and several African customs. Despite criticisms directed at President Zuma of South Africa by Western media, I don’t care a rat butt about polygamy. Americans and Europeans practice polygamy with style. In Western nations, many people marry about three times in their lifetime. The difference between multiple marriages and polygamy is miniscule and negligible.

On humility, it is well-known that GEJ is a very humble person. He had a humble beginning and he is still a humble person as the President of Nigeria. He has never been accused of insubordination by any of his bosses in the past (Yar'Adua and DSP). The same cannot be said of Abubakar. Working against the re-election of his boss in 2003 is a clear case of insubordination. If he had resigned before working against him or was contesting against Obasanjo, nobody will accuse him of insubordination.

It has been alleged in the past that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was fired by Customs and Excise. If it is true, he will not be looked upon as a very trustworthy fellow. In addition, the Congressman William Jefferson saga in the United States is a big minus for him. His former boss (President Obasanjo) doesn’t have any good thing to say about him. He is a man of severely damaged reputation. Whereas I believe that everyone must be allowed a second chance, it has to be noted that second chance should be earned. I am not sure that he has earned that.

GEJ is a very patient man. He demonstrated this quality when his boss (Yar’Adua) was receiving treatment in Saudi Arabia. Despite the fact that he was kept in the dark by the cabals in President Yar’Adua’s cabinet, he kept his cool and rather chose to focus governance. He never lost his patience. He never made any incendiary statement to the media or politicians. The chain of incidents during those trying days for Nigeria would have brought the worst out of an impatient person or an overly ambitious politician.

Whereas GEJ is considered a reputable person, Atiku Abubakar’s reputation has been severely tattered. If he becomes the President, his standing among his peers in the world will not be anything to write home about. Nigeria as country has come long way. It will be foolhardy to allow someone who is still facing corruption charges in another country to be the flag bearer of our nation’s ruling party.

The last factor is geopolitical fairness. It has to be noted that the South-South and the South-East zones are the only geopolitical zones in the country that have been deprived of the leadership of the Nigeria nation. The two zones have been marginalized for too long. GEJ is from South-South zone. He has been the president for only about a year. General Aguiyi-Ironsi was the Head of State of Nigeria for only six months. In other word, in Nigeria’s fifty years of existence as an independent nation, leaders from the South-South and the South-East zones have been in power for only one year and one half. That’s troubling. If there had been equity, a leader from the South-South geopolitical zone should have been in office for at least eight years. In the same vein, a leader from the South-East zone should have controlled this country for at least eight years.

Finally, I have to reveal the identity of my candidate in the upcoming PDP primary election and 2011 general election. He is Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ). He has earned my unflinching support. He definitely outscores Alhaji Atiku Abubakar on all the twelve factors that are used to determine the fitness to lead a nation. These factors are honesty, patriotism, experience, capability, intelligence, judgment, values, humility, trustworthiness, patience, reputation. In Nigeria, geopolitical fairness should always be a factor. As can be seen, I am not supporting him only because he is from a particular geopolitical zone. As a matter of fact, I am not from the South-South zone. I am from Anambra State (or South East).