THE IMPARTIAL OBSERVER

When two elephants fight... Nigeria, “the grass,” suffers

HANK ESO

Monday, May 9, 2005

Because Nigerians are as gregarious as they are peripatetic, the air routes to Nigeria, especially the Lagos-New York and Lagos-London routes are two of the most lucrative in the world. But this is so too because Nigeria hardly capitalized on these air routes, thus leaving them open for those who are better equipped to tap its rich resources. Now the Lagos-New York route has become basis for the war of the titans and, indeed, two allies in other spheres -- as in Iraq.

In December 2004, Nigeria offered Continental Airlines, the world's sixth largest airline, approval to service the dormant but lucrative Lagos-New York route. Flights were due to start this second week of May 2005. The week before last, the authorities in Abuja barred Continental Airlines from flying direct to Nigeria, in an obvious retaliation of a US ban on Nigeria’s new hybrid carrier, Virgin Nigeria, which is partly owned by the Virgin Group of Britain.

This war, in which Nigeria and Nigerians are the main victims and losers, is a war between the US and the UK. Nigeria, by denying Continental Airlines pertinent technical permits it requires in order to operate the lucrative Lagos-New York route, joins the fray of fight between the UK and the US over what the US deems Britain's anti-competitive aviation policy. It was for these reasons that the US barred Virgin Nigeria from flying to the US, noting that the new carrier is 49-percent owned by Richard Branson's Virgin Group. The US in taking the decision to ban Virgin Nigeria could not have been oblivious that Nigerian individuals and institutions own 51 percent of the paid-up initial investment of $50 million, while Virgin Atlantic held the remaining 49 percent. Of the Nigeria share, Capital Alliance, Dantata, and Standard Trust Bank hold the bulk, reportedly totaling about 25 per cent of the total equity.

Nigerians allege that the US based its action on “misinformation,” since Virgin Nigeria is not a British airline. Whatever that case, it is abundantly evident that both the US and the UK are in a tug-of-war as to which country would mine the rich reserve in revenue that the air route to Nigeria presents. Historically, this fight between allies reminds one of the buccaneering associated with those who tried to control the sea route to India. But this situation has arisen out of our own shame and the fact that, many years after independence, Nigeria could still not establish and man its own national airline. We did, once, but only as a means of enriching the political cabal and leeches that continue to suck Nigeria dry without giving anything in return.

Nigeria’s Aviation Minister Isa Yuguda reportedly saw the ban on Continental as a matter of reciprocity. Nigeria and the US signed an open-skies agreement in 2000. So, in principle, he is right; but, in actuality, he is wrong, for when neither Virgin Nigeria nor Continental are flying the routes, Nigeria is losing revenue big time and both ways. All the other Europeans and Asian airlines will continue to capitalize on the Nigerian routes, while giving little or nothing in return, since there is no partnership -- the sort Nigeria would have enjoyed with Virgin or Continental. So, as much as the honorable minister might see his reciprocity clause as correct, the resulting shift in thought and policy is not entirely, for Nigeria, one of no-harm-no-foul-ploy. Meanwhile, both British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are smiling to the bank without necessarily offering Nigerians the minimal optimum in service. Also, Nigeria gains naught, since despite existing bilateral air agreements, it has no national carrier that flies to Belgium, France, Holland, India, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, or Switzerland.

The UK, having in principle refused US wider access to its airline market, ought not to benefit from the Nigeria-US open-skies agreement. Ideally, the arrangements between Nigeria and Virgin and Nigeria and Continental should not exist since they do not represent the optimal arrangement in the airline industry. But as a half-way measure to fill the lacuna created by the demise of defunct Nigeria Airways, the two deals represented the best option for alleviating the suffering of Nigerians who must now fly for over 27 hours to get home from the US, rather than a direct 12 hours flight that is possible and was indeed provided by now defunct Nigeria Airways not too long ago.

This present dispute shows how various Nigerian governments do not think through public policies, their applicability, and the greater national interest before putting them in place. Public interest policies should not be driven by profit motives but by the general interest and welfare of the Nigerian public. This should have been one such case. But like all things Nigerian, who cares if the Nigerian masses are suffering or dying. So long as Nigerian policymakers are not paying out-of-pocket-expenses, government officials will not care a hoot about such matters. Also, stopovers in Europe, warranted or unwarranted, only guarantee that they get an extra day of their per diem (estacode). Unfortunately, this is not the fate of Nigerians resident in the US or Canada, who might want a quick within-the-week dash-home to visit a sick relative or attend to some other family or personal matters.

Whatever the merit of banning Continental from Nigeria is, it is not likely to compel the US to do a rethink, nor will the UK rethink its policies against the US solely on account of helping Nigeria salvage the Virgin Nigeria deal with the US. Half-loaf is supposedly better than none. So the Minister of Aviation should have allowed the Continental flight to commence in the public interest, while using that as a leverage to salvage the Virgin Nigeria deal. Rather he embarked on a policy line which is tantamount to plotting a coup against practicality.

The kernel of the truth as well as the bottom line on this matter is that, as always, Nigeria has allowed itself to be sucked up into big-power politics, where its nationals are unwittingly the victims. But then consideration for the welfare of Nigerians abroad lost its resonance with Nigerians governments a long time ago. The present situation is exactly analogous to two elephants and the grass. As the Swahili saying goes: When two elephants fight, the grass suffer; and, when the same two elephants make love, the grass also suffer. When the US and the UK would have made up, Nigeria will still be the loser on this issue. That ought not to have been too hard to figure out. For now our hopes of direct flights to Nigeria are dashed; so it’s back to “suffering and smiling.”

With neither anger nor partiality, until next time, keep the law, stay impartial, and observe closely.

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Hank Eso, is a columnist for Kwenu.com. His commentaries on Nigerian politics and global issues have appeared in The New Times (Lagos), African Profile International (New York), The Nigerian And Africa Abroad, (New York), African Market News (New Jersey) and in Gamji.com.

Email: hankeso@aol.com