THE IMPARTIAL OBSERVER
Matters of the Moment
Actualizing Nigeria’s Exit Strategy from Mired Governance
Hank Eso
Wednesday 25 November 2009
The inherent risks of a sickly Yar’Adua remaining in office until the end of his first term
outweigh the benefits by far.
Four
remarkable but inexplicably linked events took place in Nigeria this week.
First, was the divulging that, a clandestine intra-PDP group, the President’s
Official Campaign Organization, led by presidential aide Polycarp Nwite, had
embarked on coordinating President Umaru Yar’Adua’s 2011 reelection campaign.
Second, the ruling PDP, through its National Publicity Secretary Prof. Rufai
Alkali, claimed unawareness of the group’s existence and asked the conveners of
the group to desist.
Third, to the consternation of some Nigerians, but hardly surprising to numerous others, it was also revealed that Mohammed Namadi Sambo, the PDP Governor in Kaduna State, was a prospective candidate to replace President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua on the PDP presidential ticket come 2011. The presence of PDP’s National Working Committee in Kaduna only buttressed the allegations. The rationale is plausible and strategic on two accounts -- ill health and non-performance. Thus, PDP is cognizant of the risks of fielding an ailing Yar’Adua for a second term.
Fourth, as if to confirm the unfolding saga at that same critical juncture, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua left Abuja on yet another trip to Saudi Arabia for what his spokesman termed, ”follow-up medical checks.” The president’s health-related trip, which would be his third visit outside the country in four months for medical checkups, underlined two well-known facts: the president’s ill health and the fact that he is no longer governing Nigeria to the best of his abilities. Inherent, in the latter proposition, is that the time has come for President Yar’Adua to speak candidly to Nigerians about his health and his medium and long-term political plans.
Mired governance hamstrings Nigeria. Moreover, the political vacuum at the top is palpable. For a while now, there has been polite and muted national discussions in some quarters and spirited debates in others, about the president’s ability to continue governing Nigeria. In all consideration, there is respect for the president’s rights and privacy, but the imperatives of national interest and constitutional prerogatives are hardly far behind. Yet, the consensus is that Nigeria cannot afford to drift endlessly, as has been the case since President Yar’Adua assumed office. Many see great fiasco and perdition ahead.
Discernibly, two options are on the table for the president. He can resign from office and handover to his deputy. Alternatively, he can do what President Lyndon B. Johnson did: declare unequivocally that he does not intend to seek a second term. Clearly, the latter must feature in DPD consideration, given that the party has asked those involved with the reelection campaign bid to stop forthwith. Such a disposition hints that in-house the thinking exists, even if obliquely, that the president should not seek reelection in 2011 given his present state of health.
Perhaps, someone in President Yar’Adua’s inner circle should avail him a copy of President Johnson’s 31 March 1968 speech. More importantly, they should underline two substantive closing paragraphs, where President Johnson offered the Americans these immortal, resonating and historical words:
[W]ith America's future under challenge right here at home, with our hopes and the world's hopes for peace in the balance every day, I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office--the Presidency of your country. Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.
That done, Yar’Adua’s advisers should also recommend to him to seriously consider offering Nigerians the release and inevitable exit strategy from the present political and leadership conundrum, by mimicking those immortal words by Johnson; “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.” He owes that much to Nigerians and their posterity. Certainly, Nigeria’s future is under challenge and particularly so, under the present administration. Of that, there is no debate.
As a recent piece making the rounds in the Nigeria-focused internet circuit avers, “the time has come for us to act, people talked about revolution, if it will be possible or not and some are scared about its consequences but today, Nigerians are determine to put an end to bad governance, corruption, police brutalities, and unjust killings in our society.” The truth is that the much-required revolution can begin by the singular and seemingly innocuous act by the president. Since he cannot lead, he must have the courage to step aside and create for the country the much needed exit strategy from the confounding mired governance.
It may seem mindless and even impolitic to ask an incumbent president who has not committed any crime to step down from office. Still, President Yar’Adua, his admirers, and his most ardent supporters know that he has not governed, as he ought to. They know too that his illhealth has hobbled him and the country alike. Consequently, he cannot put his personal desire to stay in power above the welfare of the nation. Neither can the wishes of his spouse and closest confidant, his ruling party, and loyalists transcend the collective national interest. Yar’Adua must show that he loves Nigeria more than he loves the office of the president. For God and Country, he must have the courage to do the needful. He needs also to prove that his wife Turai is beyond reproach.
There is also another point the President must ponder. True and exemplary leadership is anchored on the fundamental values of accountability, fairness, integrity, honesty, respect, trust, compassion, and responsibility. The oath of office, which the President took on assuming office, also imposes additional responsibilities to him along these lines. First, the way the President has handled his illhealth, never opening up to the nation that supposedly elected him, does not reflect honesty and trust.
Second, the manner in which the President has allowed the nation to drift is hardly the hallmark for responsibility, respect, and purposeful leadership. Finally, the President seems unwilling respect the integrity of the Constitution, which has laid down provisions for orderly succession as well as devolution of power. In this context, the clear unwillingness by the President and the cabal around him to allow Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to carry out his statutory deputizing duties, when the President is unable to do so, is widely recognized. Without doubt, those so inclined are naturally averse to any political succession arrangement that would see political power shift back to the south in 2011, even if constitutionally. Thus, the President remains a victim of his illhealth and weak political leadership -- two strands of his disposition exploited continually by opportunistic politicians around him.
Today, “servant-leader” -- a phrase introduced into Nigeria’s political parlance by President Yar’Adua -- has all but disappeared from the national lexicon. The President’s determination to continue in office despite his glaring failing health is undoubtedly in line with his commitment to the underlying values of being a “servant-leader”. Yet, that overriding commitment must pale to responding vigorously to the nation’s desire for a robust leadership.
The philosophy of servant-leader is quite ancient, dating as far back as 4th century B.C., when in his book Arthashastra, Chanakya wrote, “the king [leader] shall consider as good, not what pleases himself but what pleases his subjects [followers]” “the king [leader] is a paid servant and enjoys the resources of the state together with the people.” It goes thus that if the President still thinks of himself as the servant-leader, he must spearhead the national debate about his medium and long-term plans. He can offer guidance, create direction, and facilitate the seamless transition and succession planning after he leaves the stage of the Presidency.
Most Nigerians are mindful that PDP’s internal dynamics and the efficacy of its zoning policy, which threw up the present leadership, continue to weigh heavily of the President’s mind, as he contemplates his political and personal future. But the pressure not to quit office prematurely derives mainly from his family and a phalanx of hangers-on to whom the President is a benefactor. But there must be a more profound consideration about the tough task of governance beyond what is political convenient and balancing leadership between north and south.
The present untenable situation calls for hardheaded and dispassionate decision-making in the national interest. Without being presumptuous, here is what President Yar’Adua should do in recognition of the essence of the political realities confronting him and the country. For the sake of national unity and PDP’s internal power-sharing dynamics, the President should step down on health grounds. Before he does so, he should handpick who will become the Vice President Jonathan’s deputy for the remainder of the first term. He should elicit from VP Jonathan a commitment not to run for office in 2011, but to support his deputy, thus ensuring that the north finishes its two terms, albeit abbreviated. This process would guarantee that the constitutional dictates on orderly succession are fully respected.
Taken differently, the inherent risks of a sickly Yar’Adua remaining in office until the end of his first term outweigh the benefits by far. God forbid! But should Yar’Adua suddenly die in office, Nigeria must inevitably swear in Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, and do so without any conditionality. Jonathan would have the prerogative of selecting his own VP. Unquestionably, this might upset the PDP zoning applecart and could create a constitutional crisis, should there be any opposition to Jonathan assuming the presidency. As it is, the kite already flown about Governor Mohammed Sambo’s presidential aspirations, is an unmasked challenge to the incumbent President and his deputy. It speaks to all not being well within PDP. Still, we know what the power of incumbency can do. With Goodluck Jonathan as president, it would be an uphill battle for anyone to upend him. This singular fact makes it imperative for Yar’Adua to negotiate his exit and eventual successors now that he has time and the influence.
The choices confronting Nigeria are stark and not too pleasant. Many well-meaning Nigerians shy away from taking the President’s present ill health for fear of offending some sensitivities. They are even more reserved about discussing the succession issues, since that supposition connotes expectation of the untimely demise of the president. Still, this is a critical national issue that only President Yar’Adua can tackle head-on and, in so doing, spare the nation much anguish and consternation. He must declare himself physically unfit to continue leading the nation. Here is the critical question: Is there still anyone within the president’s inner circle with enough gumption and patriotism to look him straight in the eyes and say, “Mr. President, you must make that declaration?”
I hope such a lone, sane and audacious voice still exists in the Nigerian political and leadership spectrum. Not tackling this matter now, portends a grave national crisis soon or eventually in 2011. A stitch in time saves nine!
With neither anger nor partiality, until next time, keep the law, stay impartial, and observe closely.
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Hank Eso is a columnist for Kwenu.com. His observations on Nigerian, African and global politics and related issues, has appeared in various print media, journals and internet-based sites.
© Hank Eso, 25 November 2009.
Email: hankeso@aol.com.