THE IMPARTIAL OBSERVER

2011 We Shall See What We Shall See

 

Hank Eso

hankeso@aol.com

                                                                                                                                             Sunday 8 August 2010

 

The decision whether to run for office in 2011 or not singularly belongs to President Jonathan. Nonetheless, President Jonathan has been most unkind to the Nigerian nation and more so to himself and whatever political legacy he hopes to bequeath to Nigeria.  Whereas silence may be golden, vacillation and pusillanimous dispositions in dire national moments are not acts of courage, discretion, or compelling signs of great and purposeful leadership. …. As things stand, he should be extremely lucky if 2011 is not personally for him a stillbirth. Come 2011, we shall see what we shall see!

 

A detached period of summer vacation affords one great, sobering and sometimes-bemused moments of reflection. That has been my fate since 11 July, when this column detached from the web universe. What I have heard and seen, however, are not all pretty.  Some, however, are more troubling and painful. Still, it is nice to be back to the pundit’s beat. Many issues, both international and domestic, continue to cry for attention. With summer vacation over, it is time again to maul at nagging issues.

 

In Nigeria, governance is visibly circumlocutory and directionless. However, one must herein make a distinction between the ubiquitous bad governance that bedevils most of Africa and the present spate of mis-governance in Nigeria that is the result of benign lack of political will, which if unattended, will yield deleterious and malignant results.

 

It bears admitting that there is always the temptation to consider mis-governance as a synonym for bad governance. However, by definition, mis-governance lies in mid-realm, and somewhere between good governance and bad governance.  It is, however, closer to poor governance than it is to bad governance. 

 

Still mis-governance can be as debilitating as bad governance. Indeed, the former is the willful desecration of the core tenets of purposeful leadership, mostly for personal gains and gratification, using the trappings of power but not necessarily by corrupt means as it is by acts of omission and manipulating the bureaucracy.   In fact, mis-governance has more to do with the disposition to allow distractive and intrusive variables to undermine incrementally, the focus and faithful implementation of policies pertaining to the efficient ministration of the nation. 

 

Comparatively, bad governance has more to do with leaderships identified as venal, corrupt, maximalist intolerant, draconian and bloodily ruthless. Such undemocratic leaderships soon drag their nations into a state of social disequilibrium, ethnic unrest, poverty, corruption, human rights violations, state-sponsored terrorism and organized crime, impunity, decrepit infrastructures, deteriorated institutions and even civil wars.

 

For the purposes of this piece, we shall consider mis-governance, simply as a gross disdain for purposeful leadership and a preference in advancing the leadership’s personal interests, and the eventual emergence of “unitary executive” that encompasses the executive and legislative arms thus rendering both fungible, but not necessarily through corrupt processes. 

 

Nigeria is presently engulfed by the latter, courtesy of the insidious debate on the ruling PDP’s zoning policy and if President Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent president of Nigeria and a beneficiary of that policy should stand for presidential elections in 2011, or yield that right to a northern candidate. The decision whether to run for office in 2011 or not, singularly belongs to President Jonathan. This pundit has taken a firm position on that matter (see The Run and Do Not Run Game), and purely so, based on principles and overriding national interest. Nonetheless, President Jonathan has been most unkind to the Nigerian nation and more so, to himself and whatever political legacy he hopes to bequeath to Nigeria.  Whereas, silence may be golden, vacillation and pusillanimous dispositions in dire national moments are not acts of courage, discretion, or compelling signs of great and purposeful leadership.

 

As in all things, in life and in governance, there will always be imponderables.  However, such are far removed from self-inflicted national ennui that is the distinct result of acts of commission and omission. There is no gainsaying that leadership is about taking principled positions and making hardheaded decisions, no matter how painful or unpopular they may be.  Even making a compromise sometimes requires tough and painful judgment calls. Often, it entails great personal sacrifices.  In any meaningful presidency, where the buck stops with the holder of the office, how one handles personal matters, are often good clear indicators as to how he or she would handle a grave national crisis and events requiring decisive decisions. Such events, define the Essence of Decision making.

 

Politicking and posturing of which there has been abundance in Nigeria lately, is hardly governance. Moreover, while Nigerian leaders are undoubtedly engaged in proactive politicking, there is hardly any added value or impetus of improved governance capacity after nearly twelve years of uninterrupted democracy. This is regrettably so at all levels of governance – local, state and federal.

 

Coincidentally, the prevailing atmosphere of lull and mis-governance coincides with the nation’s 50th independence anniversary celebrations, which ought to be a watershed point for a comparative evaluation of national accomplishments or lack thereof.  The fiftieth year mark also ought to serve as the point to unearth the dim beginnings of nationhood and map out the challenges and goals to be met ahead of the centennial mark.  

 

It is most confounding that Nigerian leaders still don’t get it!  They all, it seems, have been consigned with the gift of darkness. Governance is not about doing what is convenient or suitable. Certainly, it is not about subverting or ignoring due process or the Constitution under whatsoever pretext. The lines between personal interest and national interest has blurred so badly that conflict of interest is no longer a matter for consideration by public functionaries. This brings to mind the alleged acceptance by some Nigerian senators of free travel and 2010 FIFA World Cup tickets to South Africa from MTN, a GSM vendor for which they have regulatory oversight.  Damn it!  These people should be censured!!

 

Beyond the zoning debate, so much has happened – rampant kidnappings, human insecurity, bogus and unimplemented projects, shoddy legislations, gross padding official allowances, submission of false senate screening reports, declining power generation and capital flight – that there ought to be a national outrage.  In the context of vox populli, a throaty outrage over the mis-governance of Nigeria should be palpable. Yet we hear none! That reality, in itself is a tale-tale sign of deep resignation and of a nation engulfed by a deeply troubling political miasma. The way Nigerian is presently run, reminds me of ENRON; while everything is seemingly done by the books, the entity is being gutted by the CEO’s and the investors and stakeholders are none the wiser.

There are some inexplicable occurrences. There is an increasing and collectivized tendency for elected and appointed officials, both in the public and private sectors to engage institution building and cultish nest feathering around key personalities. There is also a burgeoning spate of fiscal indiscipline, since on pro-rated basis, Nigerian public and private sectors leaders spend more money administering their various offices and fiefdoms than they do in administering the nation.  What is evident, is that even in the absence of a “settlement culture” made a norm by General Ibrahim Babangida, the nation has collectively lost its conscience, and voice of reason, through acquiescence.

 

Apropos, the presidency, it is indeed sad that rather than rise above the partisan fray, President Jonathan has allowed himself, rather whimsically, to become entrapped in the present political quagmire. In the end, whichever way he decides, he would end up betraying his northern political partners or his southern supporters. It is commonsensical that hardly any of those who are prodding him to run or not to run for the presidency in 2011, have as their major concern, his personal wellbeing or that of the nation.  Rather, such advocacy and counsel are premised on hidden, personal or sectional agendas that do not take into full account the possible consequences for Nigeria, of a botched 2011 electoral process. 

 

Reminiscent of our checkered past national elections, bar that of 1993, the 2011 elections are well near the bend and in the end; we shall see what we shall see. Perhaps as K.O. Mbadiwe of blessed memory would have aptly put it, in 2011:  “the come shall come to become” Still, Nigerian’s should be mindful that the country is yet again approaching another critical tipping point.  While it is plausible that her nascent democracy credentials makes Nigeria less adept at tackling critical governance issues, it is equally true that like bad governance, the mis-governance we are witnessing across board, has its obvious, not-so-obvious and unstated perils.  One point worth bearing in mind is that nations that ignore the incremental drift toward mis-governance, inevitably follow the path toward perdition, even if unwittingly so.

 

If any aspect of mis-governance poses a singular grave danger for Nigeria, it is its stealthy nature; mis-governance is subliminal, indecipherable, but also unobtrusively insidious. For sure, we have had military and civilian administrations we clearly characterized as corrupt. Jonathan’s government has not acquired that dubious label, which is not to suggest that untoward things are not happening in government circles.  We have also had administrations that were clearly draconian and even engaged in extra-judicial killings. While the Yar’Adua-Jonathan administration seems harmless in that regard, the deteriorating and frightful levels of human insecurity nationwide are taking evident toll.  

 

From where I stand, I think it is already too late for President Goodluck Jonathan to turn around and lead the nation, as he ought to have done from the very beginning.  Reminiscent of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s Third Term bid, he has allowed his candidacy in 2011 to define and subjugate his core national agenda, which could easily have been boosting national power generation, curbing crime, creating wealth through massive employment or embarking on a genuine and unfettered electoral reform. Furthermore, he has also failed to engage proactively the Nigerian Diaspora, which after oil, generates the second highest percentage of the GDP, 6.7% or $18.5 billion.  What President Jonathan has is one great missed opportunity to uplift Nigeria. As things stand, he should be extremely lucky, if 2011 is not personally for him a stillbirth. 

 

Come 2011, we shall see what we shall see!

 

With neither anger nor partiality, until next time, keep the law, stay impartial, and observe closely.

 

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Hank Eso is a columnist for Kwenu.com.  His observations on Nigerian, African and global politics and related issues, has appeared in various print media, journals and internet-based sites.

© Hank Eso, 8 August 2010.  

Email: hankeso@aol.com