THE IMPARTIAL OBSERVER
Cold reality: Igbo presidency in 2007 elusive
HANK ESO
Friday, 30 July 2004
Nigerians are fast mobilizing for the 2007 elections. And this is true even though the political and legal issues thrown up by the 2003 elections remain largely unresolved. Their non-resolution also translates into a do-or-die-battle the next time around. The ongoing mobilization interestingly is for all comers, but has a unique attraction for Ndiigbo. But if anyone really cares about the truth, the cold reality is that an Igbo presidency in 2007 is elusive and might well be so for the foreseeable future, unless Ndiigbo rethink their political strategy.
For now, the march to 2007 general elections raises more than the fundamental or general question. The issue of relevance and appropriate stratagem has cropped up. But the key issue for the Igbo people remains what it has been since 1996, when Gen. J. T. U. Aguiyi Ironsi became the last Igboman to rule Nigeria, albeit briefly. Since then, an Igbo presidency has been an emotive issue exploited by Igbo politicians as much as it has been exploited by Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba political leaders. The only constant in the consideration are the key questions – three in all: What to do? How to get there? Whom to support?
I learned recently from a close friend, that a group of young Igbo professionals in the East Coast and mainly the New Jersey-New York axis have been mobilizing and calling on other fellow southerners to support General Babangida for 2007. The political take of those at the helm of the so-called “Project 007,” which includes internist Dr. Larry Egbuchulam, clearly is that an Igbo presidency in 2007 is a no-brainer, hence their support for a northerner. Such support also fits well into the PDP zoning formula. Perhaps, the rationale is that an IBB presidency would offer Ndiigbo a chance at the number two slot. But then, rooting for IBB without an ironclad agreement is to engage in Kabuki politics. In reality, the IBB appeal taps into more ambiguous veins and his presumed political validity and relevance – he has money, the clout, acumen, experience, and ruthlessness to dominate his political opponents and environment. But can Nigeria really afford another political era under IBB? This is a virtual reality rather than a sentimental question. It is also the N12 billion question, to which those who support IBB feign to have an answer. If they and some too-careful Igbo politicians truly believe that IBB is the solution to the long overdue Igbo presidency, they are really oversimplifying the issue. Otherwise, they must wallow in willful ignorance.
It is noteworthy that any mention of IBB in connection of the presidency in 2007 elicits deep-seated disapproving harrumphs nationwide. Such misgivings from Nigerians are quite understandable given his wasted opportunity and tainted legacy. For Ndiigbo, there is an added dimension. Lest we forget, it was the same IBB who wrested power away from Ndiigbo, when he dismissed Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe from the number-two slot at General Sani Abacha’s behest and in favor of Admiral Augustus Aikhomu. Are those who are now in support of IBB hoping that a transformed IBB would reinstate Ukiwe, or are they assured that what happened to Ukiwe would not happen to an Okafor or Okeke or whomever they offer as IBB’s number-two? Believing that IBB would make any kind of restitution to Ndiigbo is like believing that Ndiigbo would get back their "Abandoned Properties" in Rivers State. As plausible an idea and as rational as it might be to pursue an Igbo presidency through the short-term support of IBB’s candidacy, the reality remains that with IBB involved, everything become a remote probability since there is no common denominator beyond the man himself. But aside from this sectional undertaking is a broader clamor both at home and aboard for what some believe to be a long-overdue Igbo president. Again, the issue is when, how, and who?
Squaring the Circle of Igbo Politics:
Everything considered, the all-consuming issue of producing a president of Igbo ethnic extraction -- when and where possible -- is hobbled by one fact: political calculation. Ndiigbo, it seems, do not yet know how to square the circle on this one political issue. Amazingly too, almost five decades after quintessential Igbo politicians like Alvan Ikoku, Nwafor Orizu, M. I. Okpara, Mbonu Ojike, K. O. Mbadiwe, Akanu Ibiam, and the Nnamdi Azikiwe dominated the Nigerian political landscape, there is still irreverent talks about the maturation of Igbo politics on the national stage. Evidently no lessons were learned from 2003. There have been several false starts for Ndiigbo and each instance culminated in failure. The same past scenario is just about to be repeated in 2007: the absence of a strategic consensus on how to proceed. Ironically, in strict constitutional as well as populist consideration and dictates, no one can expect to win the election to the Nigerian presidency without winning handily in the Igbo states. Such leverage, however, has never been fully exploited by Ndiigbo. The norm has instead been to disperse Igbo votes like ukpaka (oil-bean) seeds without any discernible results.
As an Igbo saying warns: Agadi nwaanyi daa nda ada nabo, a guo ife o bu n'ukpa onu; it basically cautions against false starts and precipitate action. Literally translated, it warns that when an old lady trips twice in a row, the content of her basket becomes public knowledge.” Fundamentally, the adage addresses itself to the use and employment of strategy in whatever we do and, more importantly, the utility of avoiding costly false dawns or false starts.
Machiavellianism is a
political art form. Those who are astute in the art are either naturally gifted
or study and refine the use of modern absolutism. Nowhere in partisan politics
is Machiavellianism so common than where competition for the control of power
and resources are the fiercest. Nigeria, given its ethnic and demographic
dynamics, represents, perhaps, the best theatre for Machiavellian politics. And
in Nigeria politics, Machiavellianism has been epitomized by IBB’s “Maradonaism.”
In this context and because it is hard in the extreme to discuss contemporary
Nigeria politics without discussing Igbo politics, it becomes equally hard to
discuss the role of Ndiigbo in Nigerian politics without wondering if Ndiigbo
still understand the concept of political stratagem, talk less the full impact
of Machiavellianism on their collective aspirations. For Ndiigbo, throwing in
their political lot with IBB will be an exercise fraught with pitfalls. As a
rhetorical Igbo idiom ponders in caution, Nwa mbu agaro
ije, nke ibua o ga-agba oso? (If the
first child has not walked, can the second child be expected to trot?)
For many amongst Ndiigbo, there is an ingrained belief that the immediate emergence of an Igbo as president would be a catharsis of sort for them and for Nigeria. While possible, in reality, such belief is for now purely speculative, and might indeed reside in the realm of wishful thinking. At best, it is under the present dispensation a naively optimistic assumption. But then, for those who wish to keep Nigeria as one political entity, and who are into calculative politics, orchestrating an Igbo for the presidency sooner than later ought to be imperative and a matter of keen national interest, just as the power shift to the south was in 1998.
There is nothing wrong with Ndiigbo aspiring to produce a president for Nigeria. As a medieval sage would have said of this issue, Honi soit qui mal ye pense (Shame on he who thinks this evil). Some Igbo and non-Igbo have alluded to the fact the Nigeria would thrive and excel under an Igbo as president. This, again, belongs to the realm of conjecture and theory. The answer, however, as some point out, resides in the ingenuity that sustained “Biafra” for thirty months. I believe such a focus has become utterly distractive for Ndiigbo and what they ought to be doing in order to be truly politically empowered. For one thing, any talk of an Igbo for the presidency marks the beginning of the splintering of the Igbo votes. The quest for an Igbo for the presidency has never been addressed in the context of a collective interest, as it has been a matter of individual aspirations and whims. This was a point made by Chief Vincent Azie last May, in his keynote address at the 2004 Pan-Ndi Igbo Foundation Conference in Dallas, Texas, when he “called on the Igbo people to temper their republican tendencies as a way of achieving their political goals in 2007.” In every case in the past, the “united we stand-divided we fall” maxim has been proven right as has the futility of our collective lack of strategy as to how to approach our quest to lead Nigeria.
Ndiigbo have paid an enormous price for such unarticulated aspiration and their fractious politics. This was how the Igbo hierarchy in PDP got decimated. It was also how Dr. Alex Ekwueme became marginalized in the PDP house he helped to build. Ndiigbo are smart but, despite being endowed with great wisdom, they are exhibiting a lot of political naiveté in grasping the essence of politics in a complex and multiethnic country like Nigeria. I certainly do not quarrel with anyone or group harboring political or leadership aspirations. That is the essence of democracy. And when such aspirations are clearly articulated and implemented, they may yield tangible results. But there has to be a vision, a strategy, and the political will to attain the stated objective. Ndiigbo need to contemplate how to square the circle of their strategy in order to fully address the reversible errors that continue to stymie their political efforts and aspirations.
It is gratifying that some Ndiigbo now realize that the Igbo nation faces a gargantuan problem. Added to this, is the real or imagined phobia of Igbo domination. Such a phobia was played upon several months back when President Olusegun Obasanjo in the worse form of crass partisan politics, told the people of Bayelsa that Ndiigbo were clamoring for a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) in order wrest away the presidency and was only using the south-south minorities as tools for their grand design. It is fallacious as well as malicious to suggest that only the Igbo were agitating for an SNC. And it is also dangerous and impolitic not to recognize and acknowledge that the groundswell demands for a SNC is a way of signaling that the country is in distress. But then, whereas such divisive political ploys are emblematic of the problems that continue to plague Nigeria and breed mistrust, President Obasanjo was basically alluding to an Igbo agenda. But, really, what is the agenda and does it exist?
The aforementioned Pan Igbo Conference (PIC) had as its theme, “Realigning Our Economic, Political, and Socio Cultural Agenda: A Panacea for Economic and Political Empowerment.” I believe that the PIC also made a valid point, when it expressed the desire to “become the vanguard of a movement that shall seek redemption for our people through collaboration within the framework of a unifying Igbo agenda.” Also two points from the conclusions of that gathering stand out clearly as the lead path to pursue and both stressed Igbo unity and enterprise.
The first point is that “The strength of Ndiigbo lies in our capacity for enterprise and new wealth creation through commerce, industry and hard work. Igbo salvation shall be sought principally through refinement and amplification of our field of maximal competence as the means for attaining other essential individual or collective goals. We encourage Igbo groups to start building viable economic communities.” In this particular point, I merely wish to underscore the need for an emphasis on exploiting fully our areas of comparative advantage. And second, the PIC urged “the Ohanaeze Ndiigbo, Igbo National Assembly (INA), World Igbo Congress (WIC), PNF and sundry pan-Igbo parochial organizations worldwide to dovetail their operational agenda, in short and medium terms, to resonate with the unanimous desire to pursue economic empowerment for our people.” The latter point recognizes the deep divisiveness caused by lack of unity and consensus. Perhaps, this ought to be the key issue, when the World Igbo Congress meets in New Jersey later this year.
The Home Truth
As unsavory as it might be to swallow, those Ndiigbo bent on pursuing an Igbo presidency in 2007 are deluding themselves. They are no different or less naïve than the cluster of Igbo candidates that variously ran for the position in 2003 and in doing so successfully handed the position to President Obasanjo by failing to reach a consensus on a single candidate. This point was the premise of an article that appeared in Thisday of 18 May 2004, titled, “2007: Igbo Lost Presidency in 2003." In the piece, the President of Igbo Question Movement, (IQM), Mr. Ben Onyechere pointedly stated of an Igbo presidency in 2007, that “contrary to expectations, it is not Igbo's turn. How can it be when we conceded our chance at the presidency to Obasanjo in 2003?” He also noted that:
In 2003, the Igbo nation had the whole world at their feet and what did they do? The governors became engrossed in their selfish ambition of securing a second term rather than fighting for a common cause of realizing the Igbo presidency dream…. because of this, instead of them working in conjunction with Ohanaeze to form a common front, they did the opposite, even creating divisions within the group for their selfish ends.
This is the home truth for anyone who really cares to know. Ironically, it is a truth most of the key Igbo political players would soon readily choose to forget than be reminded about. They would also rather forget the role they played in bringing it about. Such denials would only afford them the opportunity to embark on being spoilers once again without facing the repercussions of their follies.
Cognitive Politics
In the aftermath of the 2003 general elections, I have no clear or defined strategy yet to get an Igbo to the Presidency. The permutations and combinations required to pull off such a feat are always changing and are therefore not constant. In 2003, I believed and said so, that the best- case scenario and strategy was the one embarked upon by late Dr. Chuba Okadigbo on the ANPP platform. But it is clear to me still and perhaps to others too, that the path for an "Igbo presidency" will go through first securing a number-two slot, which then takes 2007 out of the question and makes 2015 more likely. (See ABADI: “A glimpse into 2007”). But then again, there is also a point worth considering – and this point was alluded to by late General Philip Efiong in his forthcoming memoir, “Nigeria and Biafra: My Story.” The quest for “Biafra” was not an ethnically pure Igbo agenda. The Ibibio, the Efik, the Ogoni, the Ijaw, the Kalabari, the Ika, and the Igbo were all part of that exercise. And some Yoruba too. And lest we forget, there were many Igbo who fought on the Federal side and therefore contributed to keeping Nigeria as one entity. While not by any means advocating a return to the premise that predicated the declaration of Biafra, it seems self-evident that a focus on an "Igbo presidency" that does not take into account the role and support of south-south minorities will be a major calculation doomed for failure; likewise any "Igbo presidency" project that scuffs an alliance with the North.
Clearly, while I am not an IBB aficionado and do not feel that he has anything more to offer to Nigeria or to Ndiigbo, I have always argued that that the way to Aso Rock for Ndiigbo will always be premised on serving first in a second capacity as Vice-President. Also, the way Ndiigbo have gone about their politics, the next southern vice-president might well be a south-south minority rather than an Igboman proper. (See “Serendipity: Nigeria, circa 2027”). Interestingly enough, I am not alone in this thinking. At a recent lunch with Senator Onyeabo Obi -- himself an Igbo political stalwart -- Nigerian and Igbo politics featured, as it inevitably does when one or two Nigerians are gathered. The esteemed senator, while not discounting the political relevance of potential Igbo candidates like Senate President Wabara and Governors Nnamani and Orji Kalu, affirmed the point of view that come 2007 the vice-president of Nigeria would most likely emerge from the south-south minority stock. Put simply, Senator Obi’s views and mine dovetailed remarkably towards the same conclusion. This, however, was not in any way a suggestion, even in a notional sense, that either of us was sold on the “IBB for President” agenda now being peddled by some Ndiigbo.
All said and done, it would
seem that those Igbo who are currently engaged in pushing for IBB to run in
2007 are
cognizant of the point of this write-up: that an Igbo for the
presidency in 2007 is nothing but elusive and wishful thinking. But the answer
does not lie, I believe, with their candidate. As someone put it to me most
recently, the choice between IBB and Atiku Abubakar is like the choice between
the devil and the deep blue sea. Faced with the deep blue sea, there was a
chance of miraculously swimming to safety or being rescued. The devil’s
alternative was zero. Head or tails you were bound to lose. This is in itself
another cold reality that need not be ignored. Moreover, I am not convinced that
IBB represents the interest of the mainstream North.
And here is my final take. Truthfully, while politics is a matter of calculations and compromises, it would be extremely painful should Ndiigbo once again allow outsiders to determine for them who their representatives at the highest levels of the Nigerian government should be. The Igbo did not press on the Yoruba to accept Olu Falae or Olusegun Obasanjo or on the Hausa-Fulani to accept General Buhari or Atiku Abubakar as their representative candidates. Why then must an Igbo candidate become a bargaining chip for the rest of the nation? Were these to happen, as a result of Ndiigbo being collectively dimwitted or pliant, it would be easy to forgive. What is unforgivable is the growing thinking that every Igbo person no matter how well-placed can be swayed from their position on any issue including politics for the right sums.
Ndiigbo have the stark choice of swimming or sinking. They must swim together or sink separately as has been the case. They must also find a way forward by articulating a platform of how to re-insinuate the Igbo mainstream into Nigerian national politics and how to convince their other major and minority nations' interlocutors that an Igbo leadership with its added value will best serve the Nigerian commonwealth than any other hitherto.
Also the point needs to be made, that long after Zik and Ironsi, Ndiigbo retain the capacity to offer purposeful leadership that is germane to Nigeria’s collective national interest. In making this point, we need to also vehemently decouple the perceived contextual link between Igbo political aspirations and what some fear as Igbo domination. Ultimately, what we need now is hard-headed cognitive politics and the emergence of those Igbo politicians who are selfless and single-minded enough to pursue the Igbo national agenda in the context of present day Nigeria, without being complacent or obtuse about the ultimate objective. More importantly, Ndiigbo need to set aside their defeatist republicanism and deleterious partisanship in order to secure for Nigeria and themselves a leadership that will serve and protect our common historically cherished values.
Until next week, keep the law, stay impartial, and observe closely.
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Hank Eso, is a columnist for Kwenu.com (New Jersey). Since 1982 his political commentaries on Nigerian politics and global issues have appeared in The New Times (Lagos), African Profile International (New York), and The Nigerian And Africa Abroad. (New York). © Hank Eso, Friday 30 July 2004. Email: hankeso@aol.com