The return of the dark days
Chinedu Maduabum
Onitsha, Nigeria
Unwillingness to surrender power is the curse of civilization, the root of ages of trouble. Some men find the appetite irresistible. They will sacrifice everything else to hold their power.
– Raymond Clapper
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Preamble
I want to commence by thanking all those who have written and called to find out the reason why I have not been writing and/or whether I still write with the site www.kwenu.com. I want to assure you all that I still write with the site and it will be very hard for me to let go that which has brought me fame and worldwide recognition. However, I want to say that life would be dull and colourless but for the obstacles that we have to overcome and the flights that we have to win. And talking about winning, this is exactly what Mr. President has made us to understand that it is a “do or die affair.” I really hate to predict events when I write because I have had most of my few predictions so far come to pass. I wonder if this will be different.
One
very interesting thing about the Nigerian state, more especially the political
terrain, is the fact that there is never a moment of dullness. There are always
events to make it active ranging from the mundane to the ridiculous and the
serious. Whenever one issue dies down, another one figuratively germinates and
keeps everybody busy. The feud between Mr. President [Olusegun
Obasanjo] and his deputy [Vice
President Atuku Abubakar] is no doubt the most talked about event since the
inception of the new year, geminating in the process tenure elongation, PTDF
scandal and, presently, the election hullabaloo. It is even more interesting to
note that it has been a similar pattern since 1960 when the country was
liberated from Western imperialism. I see no reason therefore why you will not
like Nigeria and Nigerian politicians like I do.
THE PREVIOUS PAGES
Time they say will discover everything to posterity; it is a babbler and speaks even when no question is put. Of course it has spoken for itself that Nigeria is merely going round a circle of decadal problem and, today, we find ourselves at the end of another circle. If we open the previous pages meticulously, one will decipher it has been a circle of déjà vu scenarios. In the mid-50s leading to independence, the country actually united against the British imperial lords and, by 1960, Nigeria was liberated and became an independent state just like many other African states. Thus, our first democratically elected government was installed. However, the real test was to follow during the period leading to the re-election in 1964. And as it was later going to be in every decade, the country collapsed and fell into the hands of the military, which was climaxed by the war of 1967 – 70.
It was therefore the time of the 70s (note the crisis always commenced in the middle of every decade), and in 1974 General Gowon announced that the return to civilian rule would be postponed indefinitely. His timing was poor: High prices, chronic shortages, growing corruption, and the failure of the government to address several regional issues had already created a restless mood.
On July 29, 1975, Brigadier Murtala Muhammed overthrew Gowon in a bloodless coup. Muhammed moved quickly to address issues that Gowon had avoided. He replaced corrupt state governors. He purged incompetent and corrupt members of the public services. He instigated a plan to move the national capital from industrial, coastal Lagos to neglected, interior Abuja. Civilian rule, he declared, would be restored by 1979, and he began a five-stage process of transition. However, he was assassinated but, in 1979, the Second Republic was born. As the pattern would have it, another crisis started looming in 1983 during the same re-election period.
On New Year’s Eve 1983, army officers led by Major General Muhammadu Buhari overthrew the Shagari government in another bloodless coup. Buhari’s government enjoyed widespread public support for its condemnation of economic mismanagement, of government corruption, and of the rigged 1983 elections. This support waned, however, as the government adopted a rigid program of economic austerity and instituted repressive policies that included a sweeping campaign against “indiscipline,” a prohibition against discussing the country’s political future, and the detention of journalists and others critical of the government. Buhari’s support withered and, in August 1985, Major General Ibrahim Babangida overthrew him in one of the simplest and yet bloodless coup to wide acclaim.
The
preceding period was the longest of military rulership outside the Gowon regime
that was interrupted by the war.
Indeed,
because of his
"evil-genius"
disposition,
Ibrahim
Babangida (IBB) controlled the country and was able to manipulate the many
calls for an election.
Babangida
maintained a firm grip on power, shuffling key officers from position to
position to ensure they would not become too strong and forbidding political
parties. The general’s favoring of northern elite interests disturbed many
Nigerians. In 1986 and 1990, Babangida faced and suppressed coup attempts.
Other tensions
however escalated, particularly religious strife between Christians and Muslims;
several states, including Kaduna, Katsina, and Kano had severe religious riots
in the early 1990s. Pressure was mounted for a return to civilian rule and the
presidential election was finally held in June 1993, and then annulled by the
military when initial election results indicated that SDP candidate Moshood
Abiola, now late, had won by a large majority. Babangida, however, claimed he
still supported a transition to democracy and in August transferred power to an
interim government. The new government lasted only three months before
General
Sani Abacha, the powerful secretary of defense, overthrew it and assumed
control in August 1993. Among Abacha’s first acts was the termination of all
political activities.
In what became the worst of the previous decades, the Nigerian Labour Congress, which had already held a general strike to protest the annulled election of Abiola, organized another general strike to protest Abacha’s coup. Political pressure groups such as the Campaign for Democracy and NADECO also stepped up protests against Abacha. In May 1994, the government announced plans for political reform and held elections for local governments and delegates to yet another constitutional conference. In October 1995, Abacha lifted the ban on political activities, promised a transfer to civilian power in 1998, and later allowed five parties to operate. However, he continued his repression of dissidents, the most notorious instance of which was the hanging of writer Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other activists in November 1995.
Abacha promised to implement the constitution and return the country to civilian rule following presidential elections in October 1998. He was widely expected to be declared the winner of the elections, as all five officially sanctioned political parties had nominated him in April 1998 in what late chief Bola Ige tagged “the five leprosy fingers of one hand.” However, in June 1998, Abacha died suddenly of a heart attack -- as it was officially announced.
In May 1999, the country returned to another civilian government, for the first time headed by a retired military ruler. Many saw it as another military rule in disguise. Obasanjo’s first years in office were plagued by sporadic outbursts of communal violence across the country. Clashes between religious and ethnic groups, often spawned by local political disputes, have killed thousands of Nigerians since 1999. On April 19, 2003 Obasanjo was reelected to another term, winning the election by a wide margin. International observers criticized the election for widespread incidents of electoral fraud in some states, if not all the states.
The nation was celebrating the first successful transition from a “civilian” government to another one. Or what do you want me to call it? However, many Nigerians failed to recall that it was the middle of another decade thus marking the beginning of another crisis. Hence, when you hear peace, peace, peace... sudden destruction waits by the corner! It was not long when the issue of life presidency or tenure elongation surfaced. Thus, another event to make the terrain continuously busy.
Here we are again
“It’s over. The third term battle is over. Thank God, it is over. What else do you say about an event that tried the nation’s soul. An event that had a frightening outlook, and looked like it was going to drown all of us. An evil agenda with monstrous propensity.” This is how Eric Osagie in his article Baba eats the humble pie of May 20, 2006 celebrated the fall of the third-term agenda that kept the country to a standstill for months. But is it really over?
There is no doubt that the third-term agenda, if it were successful, would have opened a new chapter in Nigeria’s very interesting political history. However, it really charged the atmosphere for more events that were to follow suit all in one aim of ensuring that Baba remains in power. As soon as that chapter was closed in the Senate, the PTDF cankerworms came to the surface, thereby igniting an existing cold war between the President and his deputy. The feud between the two top citizens has been described as a vendetta mission over the Vice President's opposition to the third-term agenda. Well who cares anymore?
With the Vice President indicted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and an administrative panel and his eventual denial to contest the presidential race under the ruling party, PDP, it became very clear that more facts about the mess were yet to be heard. And as the days continued to unfold, more intriguing revelations were exposed. It is needless to congest this article with all the details surrounding the PTDF scam. However, and before the Senate went to a suspicious recess when the country needed them most, the President and his deeputy were indicted. But when Mr. President discovered even before his indictment that he was losing the battle just as the failed tenure elongation, he diverted his energy to disqualifying the Vice President, who had decamped to the Action Congress (AC) from contesting in the election through any means possible.
The Appeal Court on the 3rd of April upturned and earlier High Court judgment that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) -- one of Baba’s agents -- has no constitutional power to disqualify a candidate. It was a confused atmosphere nevertheless as another high court ruled in favour of the Vice President. Is the Vice President a threat to any latent agenda? The fact remains that the feud between the President and his deputy has kept the political terrain and the country very busy. The battle has finally reached a stage where everybody’s concern is whether there will be elections or not. With the sudden death of AD presidential candidate Chief Adebayo Adefarati, coupled with INEC’s double stand and a surprise suit filed by the Federal Government challenging INEC over any postponement of April 21 elections, the atmosphere has become even more and more confusing.
CONCLUSION
Ten years ago, Nigeria was in this position of anarchy and uncertainty about the future of the country, as one man held a nation to ransom. Ten years after, we are in the same position. Many people saw the transition of 2003 as breaking the decadal jinx but it was not real. This is going to be the true test of such transition. It will not be surmising if this country returns to another military rulership. The manner by which IBB withdrew from the presidential race is suspicious and the presidential choice of PDP is even more suspicious.
The
northerners believe it is their turn to produce the president after eight years
in the south, and I have been imagining what would be the outcome in an event
where this power happens to return to the south by virtue of an inevitable
natural circumstance -- if the election eventually holds and it is won by the
PDP. Is it not better to leave it this way until we meet again? But let me
quickly ask again; is the Vice President [Atiku
Abubakar] a threat to any latent
agenda?
Just remember as you sign out: Every little thing counts in a crisis.