Debate Number Two: Obama Wins “That One”
Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo
Friday, October 10, 2008
Finally, Obama has won a debate
squarely. Even his most vicious opponents concur. John McCain said so by getting
the hell out of there as soon as the handshake was done with.
Barack Obama has finally established that he is qualified to be the President of the United States. That means the first huddle for Obama has been scaled, beyond any reasonable doubt.
There are still three huddles remaining.
But for last night, “that one” won.
Now the Obama campaign will have to move on to other huddles. The first one is being ready to deal with the October surprise. It is coming. It will come when there will not be enough time to react. Anticipating that and being ready to respond would be key. It helps that Obama’s campaign has the money to fight back.
The second huddle is anticipating external influence that might change the dynamics of the election. The arrest or killing of Osama bin Laden could occur within the next four weeks. The bombing of America or an American interest abroad cou ld happen. And of course, a country could decide to influence the election by taking an aggressive action against an American interest.
An attack on America or an American interest abroad will drive voters back to John McCain. It will bring up national security on top of voters’ concerns and Republicans have consistently been regarded as better managers of the national security interest of America. And such an attack is not far fetched because groups like Al Qaeda, who are pursuing the policy of bankrupting America by keeping it perpetually at war, know that their best chance of getting the 100-year war is by helping to elect John McCain president.
The
third and final huddle, the one that Obama’s campaign cannot really control is
what has been called the Tom Bradley effect. It was coined when in 1982 a black
candidate for the governor of California, Tom Bradley, was lea ding in the polls
only to be defeated on the Election Day by a wide margin because people got into
the voting booth and voted in a manner different from what they were telling the
polls.
A new study by the Stanford University on race and elections stated that Obama’s poll numbers would have been 6% higher had he been a white man. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/race.politics/
While I do not know what could be done about that, it is important to factor that in the calculations.
Moving forward, I think that this election is Obama’s to lose.
Win or lose, last night finally erased all doubts as to whether “that one” has all it takes to be president. Even McCain said it. “We need a cool hand on the tiller.”
And on that I say I agree with McCain.
I only hope someone out there will summon the courage to walk up to him and tell him he has not got a cool hand. His hands are erratic.