'07 on my mind!

KWENU! Our culture, our future

'07 on my mind!

ACHO ORABUCHI

Thursday, December 28, 2006

2007 on my mind! That was a four-word phrase that seemed to fill the consciousness of the delegates as they wished Katsina State Governor, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, 55, good luck as he became the flag bearer of the ruling party at the conclusion of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) National Convention recently.

The political chess game anchored on calculated variations was over at the wee hours of December 17^th 2006 under a tight security at Eagle Square in Abuja with the desired result, the emergence of a credible candidate for the 2007 presidential elections. This came as a result of a culmination of weeks of high-powered political permutations.

Fascinatingly, the process, which later added Governor Goodluck Jonathan in the equation, was not only aimed at ensuring victory in 2007 for the ruling party by having a credible ticket, but also it improved on the past conventions with a lucid direction and less rancor. Engr. Emmanuel Nwachukwu, Chairman PDP, Wisconsin, eagerly opined, “The PDP Presidential primary is a lesson to be learned. Credibility plays a key role, but once again the Igbo have been sidelined. I still love my country and my beloved party PDP.”

Indeed, there are many lessons to be learned from the recently concluded PDP National Convention. Politics is full of intrigues and uncontrollable dynamics. Parties are driven by victory and would do everything legally possible to ensure the desired outcome. The emergence of Governor Umaru Yar’Adua was typical of victory projection. He is seen as more credible and experienced in terms of performance than other candidates. Also, with the view of the political landscape of the country, the ruling party thought it politically wise to elect a candidate that would be more appealing to both North and South. In Umaru Yar’Adua, PDP found that person, who would also neutralize the impact of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), a powerful political structure of the North.

Similarly, the careful selection of the running mate is also driven by electability factor in 2007. To douse the simmering political inferno of the Niger Delta which has the potential of derailing the 2007 elections, it was a calculated move to add Governor Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to the ticket. Governor Jonathan as a Vice Presidential candidate would calm the nerves of the South-South, particularly the Niger Delta, and consequently help to assure victory for PDP in 2007. In any case, the equation would not balance without the support of the Southeast. In fair, free, and violence-free elections, 2007 would be unlike 2003 elections. As a result, every geo-political zone would be critical. Additionally, electorates this time would be weeding out non-credible candidates as they evaluate them based on the issues they espouse.

In any case, the convention was a peaceful exercise. It was a mark of political maturity to see the picture capturing how the candidates, especially the governors tethered and huddled like penguins in support of the flag bearer. It’s hoped that other parties would replicate the spirit.

However, the casualty of the process—the high-powered political permutation—was Governor Peter Odili, who was on verge of securing the plum ticket only to see his support rapidly vacillate within a few days to the convention. Invariably, as this phenomenon was developing, Governor Umaru Yar’Adua’s stock was winching. Still, the success of PDP National Convention shows that with time, Nigerians would learn to do things right. With steady progress and stable transitions, Nigerian democracy would live up to promise; it would thrive. It’s the collective responsibility of Nigerians to work hard to let the promise hold. Contrasting it with the American system, the difference is staggering.

The election processes in the United States are starkly different from what occurs in Nigeria and other countries that purport to practice democracy. The primaries in the US are quite contrary to what is obtainable in Nigeria in many aspects.

In each presidential election year, the Republicans and Democrats, the two major political parties in the United States, begin in January the process of selecting the party’s flag bearer for the general elections. The next election year in the United States is 2008. However, some people in the major parties, Republican and Democrat, have already started to warm up for the process. The campaign for the 2008 Republican and Democratic presidential nominations is quietly going on with some of the hopefuls visiting Iowa and New Hampshire. While John McCain, Mitt Romney, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, and Chuck Hagel are some of the potentials on the Republican side; Democrats are represented by Hillary Rodham-Clinton, John Edwards, Tom Vilsack, Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Dennis Kucinich. There will be third party/Independent candidates in the general elections.

Though it will be a long shot for America to elect a president that does not come from either a Democratic Party or a Republican Party, other parties such as Constitution Party, Green Party, Libertarian Party, Natural Law Party, Prohibition Party, Reform Party, and Socialist Party do participate in one way or another in the general elections. Some people run as third party/Independent candidates. For instance, Mr. Ralph Nader ran in 2000 and 2004 for the presidency of the United States as a third party/Independent candidate.

The presidential primaries for both Republicans and Democrats give them, especially the candidates, the press coverage they so desired when delineating their positions on issues. They run issue-oriented campaigns.

In most states, registered Democrats are eligible to participate in the Democratic primaries. This is applicable to the Republican presidential primaries. In these states, the primary and caucus processes are restricted to those registered party members. In some states, however, the people classified as Independents, those who do not have any party affiliation, may be allowed to take part in both Democratic and Republican primary and caucus processes. It is pertinent to note that by having registered party members, including Independents in some cases, participate in the primary activities increases the direct participation of the common man in choosing parties’ presidential flag bearers. In caucuses, however, the process is different, but it is still democratic. The issue here is that the selection process is not manipulated or limited to the party’s super delegates.

Who are the “Super delegates”? For the 2004 Democratic presidential primaries, the “Super delegates” were “unpledged” delegates commonly called “Super delegates”, who were 802 of the estimated total of 4,322 convention delegates and about 37 percent of 2,162 needed for the nomination in 2004; they were comprised of party state and national leaders, former presidents and vice presidents, members of Congress, current governors, and local elected officials. Generally, the “Super delegates” are not obligated to publicly support any candidate prior to the party’s national convention.

Historically, in the process of selecting the parties’ presidential candidates, Iowa’s precinct caucus seems to be an early test of political potency for the presidential candidates with its 2500-precincts followed by the first primary, the New Hampshire primary. Officially, to clinch the nomination in, a candidate had to garner 2,162 delegates out of estimated 4,322 in the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Massachusetts on July 26-29, 2004. The delegates, specifically, the pledged delegates, were being won through victories in primary and caucus elections. The estimated total of 4,322 delegates to the Democratic National Convention came from the 50 states, including those living abroad, American Samoa, Guam, and Puerto Rico to cast their votes. For a candidate to win his/her party’s nomination during the convention, that person must have won enough delegates during the primary and caucus elections in 50 states, including those living abroad, American Samoa, Guam, and Puerto Rico.

Regardless of the obvious differences, Continuous improvement, coupled with structural fine-tuning, would advance the democratic structures and consequently facilitate the democratization process in Nigeria. There is hope!

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