The imperatives of Southeast in '07

KWENU! Our culture, our future

The imperative of Southeast in ‘07

ACHO ORABUCHI

Dallas, Texas

Sunday, April 8, 2007

In 2000 in the United States, the Democrats lost the presidency to the Republican Party when they lost Florida State electoral votes. Four years later, the country witnessed a similar occurrence. This time in 2004 presidential elections, the Democrats lost Ohio State electoral votes and ultimately lost the presidency to the Republicans for the second time in a row. The implications of these occurrences show that there are must-win states in any particular election cycle for any party to clinch the presidency of the United States.

Similarly, there is a “must win” geopolitical zone for any party to win the presidency of Nigeria in April 21, 2007. The prevailing circumstances indicate that Southeast zone is a decisive factor—a beautiful bride—in determining the presidency of Nigeria, especially, if tenuous support for some parties continues to exist. As a result, for PDP to win the presidency of Nigeria in the first ballot and/or subsequently, it is imperative for the party to win the Southeast zone without a drop of any state from the zone.

Based on the provisions of the Constitution, in order for a candidate to win in the first ballot, the person must have the highest number of votes cast and not have less than one-quarter of the votes cast in each of at least two-thirds of all the states in the federation and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Political parties should take this scenario into consideration.

Section 134 (2) of the Constitution states the following: “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election- (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”

With the multitude of presidential candidates and unsettling dynamics, it appears that the likelihood of having no emerging candidate at the first ballot is increasingly evident. If this is the case, the two top candidates would stand for election within seven days. Section 134 (4) says: “In default of a candidate duly elected under the foregoing subsections, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall within seven days of the result of the election held under the said subsections, arrange for an election between the two candidates and a candidate at such election shall be deemed elected to the office of President if - (a) he has a majority of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”

Also Section 134 (5) affirms: “In default of a candidate duly elected under subsection (4) of this section, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall, within seven days of the result of the election held under the aforesaid subsection (4), arrange for another election between the two candidates to which the subsection relates and a candidate at such election shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of President, if he has a majority of the votes cast at the election.”

In any case, some people may think that there isn’t a “must win” zone in this election cycle. In the same token, they may further assume that it would be a long shot if a president does not emerge at the first ballot.

Well, who would have thought that we would be faced with the anxieties of Section 37(1) of the 2006 Electoral Act in this election cycle? Nevertheless, we’ve just witnessed a constitutional phenomenon triggered by the death of Alliance for Democracy’s presidential candidate, Chief Adebayo Adefarati, which would have postponed the scheduled presidential election. INEC boss, Prof. Maurice Iwu, in his wisdom, declined to invoke for now Section 37(1) of the 2006 Electoral Act, which directs the postponement of the election if a candidate in the scheduled election dies within a specified period. The provisions of the Act are supported by the constitution. Provision of Section 132 (3) of the Constitution states that: “Where in an election to the office of President one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.” Again, who would have thought it would happen in 2007?

In this heated election with the agitation for credible polls, PDP has to garner the majority votes and win a minimum of one-quarter of votes in at least 24 states and FCT to retain the presidency of Nigeria. With several wards in 774 local government areas in 36 states, coupled with the clamor for fair, free, and violence-free elections, more effective grassroots structures are keenly desired. And at play now is the Southeast geopolitical zone.

Unfortunately, there’s plethora of evidence of restive angst and resentment simmering in the Southeast geopolitical zone concerning its position in the scheme of today’s politics in Nigeria. The heightened umbrage may culminate in protest votes against PDP. Thrilled by this seeming phenomenon, other parities are undoubtedly exploiting the situation by over promising the zone of things they cannot conceivably fulfill. Inasmuch as I would want and I’ve working diligently for PDP to carry Southeast in April polls, I would want the party leadership to immediately enter into serious negotiations with the people in order to earn their votes. There should be defined roles and positions for the zone if PDP is victorious. To repel the sweeteners promised by other parties, people of the zone need to know what’s in there for them. It has to be widely known and not shrouded in secrecy.

If the situation goes unchecked, it would have a profound impact on the results of the presidential election in the Southeast zone. Some of the gubernatorial candidates in the Southeast do not have adequate political capital to sway the electorate to PDP.

The Southeast zone is placed in an enviable position to determine the presidency of Nigeria come April 21^st.