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US presidential elections: The American process (1)

Acho Orabuchi

Dallas, Texas

A_Orabuchi@yahoo.com

Saturday, March 20, 2004

The year 2004 is an election year, a presidential election year, in the United States that has all the variables and complexities that would make the 2000 elections seem less dramatic at best. If you did not know what happened in 2000 elections, let me briefly say that the election in which, Mr. George W. Bush, the Republican candidate won the electoral votes and Mr. Albert Gore, the Democratic candidate won the popular votes, had to be finally decided by the Supreme Court of the United States in favor of George Bush. That shows how dramatic the 2000 presidential election was. Indeed, there were markings of history all over the whole episode. The 2000 presidential elections would go down as the most divisive in the annals of the United States history of elections.

Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee for the American presidency has not emerged from the crowded field of candidates, Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, Jerry Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, and Al Sharpton of New York, vying to represent the Democrats in the general election. In any case the field is now less crowded.

The election processes in the United States are starkly different from what occurs in Nigeria and other countries that purport to practice democracy. Boy, the primaries are quite contrary to what is obtainable in our country, Nigeria in many aspects. However, the purpose of this article is to give you an insight on what is happening on the ground here—the United States. Read on!

In each presidential election year, the Republicans and Democrats, the two major political parties in the United States, begin in January the process to select the party’s flag bearer for the general elections. This election year was no different with the exception of the fact the Republicans will not go through the process by virtue of having an incumbent president with no challenger within the party for the Republican flag bearer.

Though it will be a long shot for America to elect a president that does not come from either a Democratic Party or a Republican Party, other parties such as Constitution Party, Green Party, Libertarian Party, Natural Law Party, Prohibition Party, Reform Party, and Socialist Party do participate in one way or another in the general elections. Some people run as independent candidates. Mr. Ralph Nader has recently announced that he will run for the presidency of the United States as an Independent candidate. The announcement sent shockwaves to the political terrain of the Democrats. It was Ralph Nader the Democrats thought cost them the White House in the 2000 presidential elections because he was believed to have siphoned votes from the Democratic candidate, Al Gore.

The presidential primaries so far are giving the Democrats the press coverage they so desired considering that the person they are going to face in November 2004 is remarkably popular. The popularity of George Bush does not stop the Republicans from finding ways to compete for airtime and print space with the Democrats. The Republicans have made efforts to visit the states conducting the Democratic primaries immediately after the primaries. They have also granted several media interviews to define their agenda.

In most states, registered Democrats are eligible to participate in the Democratic primaries. This is applicable to the Republican presidential primaries. In these states, the primary and caucus processes are restricted to those registered party members. In some states, the people classified as Independents, those who do not have any party affiliation, may be allowed to take part in both Democratic and Republican primary and caucus processes. It is pertinent to note that by having registered party members party members, including Independents in some cases, participate in the primary process, increases the direct participation of the common man in choosing parties’ presidential flag bearers. In caucuses, however, the process is different, but it is still democratic. The issue here is that the selection process is not manipulated or limited to the party’s super delegates.

Historically, in the process of selecting the parties’ presidential candidate, Iowa’s precinct caucus seems to be an early test of political potency for the presidential candidates. Prior to Iowa caucus, the Democratic frontrunner for the coveted position was Howard Dean. He was tipped by the political pundits to face George Bush in the general election. Well, the results of the Iowa’s 2500-precincts caucus on January 19, 2004 and the subsequent New Hampshire primary on January 27, 2004 permanently changed the frontrunner position from Governor John Dean to Senator John Kerry. Also, the conclusion Iowa caucus on January 19 2004 marked the end of Rep. Richard Gephardt’s political career after finishing weak fourth in the caucus. The most important issue that gave John Kerry an edge over Howard Dean among the Democrats was electability question. The Democrats wanted a candidate that will be able to beat George Bush in November and they saw that quality, among other qualities, in John Kerry. The other issues that have dominated the primary elections so are the economy, loss of jobs, national security, and others. In some quarters what happened to Dean was reminiscent of what happened in 1984 when Gary Hart was the frontrunner on the verge of winning the Democratic nomination and possibly winning the presidency of the United States. One careless mistake derailed his candidacy and also sent his political career tumbling.

Politics is a game of unpredictabilities and elections are full of surprises because you do not know the state of mind of an individual voter when he or she is ready to cast a ballot. On February 19, 2004, Howard Dean, who was the frontrunner and who seemed unstoppable about five weeks ago, dropped out of the Democratic presidential primaries after losing 18 out 18 primaries and caucuses. On the other hand, John Kerry, the current frontrunner, has won 16 out of 18 primary contests held so far with about more than one-quarter of 2,161 delegates needed for the democratic presidential nomination.

Kerry has been campaigning vigorously, may be constantly reminding himself about the intense scrutiny of the frontrunner, to continue to win Democratic primaries and caucuses with three other contenders, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton still in the race. With Senator John Edwards trailing behind Senator John Kerry, but not within a shouting distance, Kerry has sharpened his message attract the supporters of the candidates that dropped out of the race and at the same time blurred the differences between him and Edwards to neutralize Edwards’ surge.

What seemed to be a crowded field of candidates is now becoming a two-man race between Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and Senator John Edwards from North Carolina going into the Super Tuesday, March 2, 2004, when 10 states would hold primaries and caucuses with 1,151 delegates at stake. Both men have been courting Democratic voters in those states in the Super Tuesday primaries with pertinent issues. The candidates would want to be identified with the voters, the common people.

The strategic position, the importance, and the role of the media in a true democracy are having indelible effects in this process. Not only that both electronic and print media have forced the candidates to discuss issues, but also they have found effect ways to educate the electorate on the candidates. There have been series of debates between the candidates. The increased level of knowledge the voters are acquiring of the candidates and the issues has resulted in the primaries and caucuses witnessing a tremendous heavy turnout of voters who are not only well informed, but also willing to participate in the process. To the delight of many Democrats, the primaries and caucuses so far have been dominated with issues the voters would want to discuss and not personal attacks that seemed to characterize the previous election years.

It is generally believed that if John Kerry, the current favorite, wins most of the primary elections on Super Tuesday, the race will be virtually over for John Edwards who had earlier indicated that he would not accept the vice presidential slot. Winning these primary elections indirectly assures John Kerry of garnering more than enough National Convention Delegates in July 2004 for the official nomination. If the race for the presidential nomination is ended for Mr. Edwards, he may change his mind and accept the vice presidential spot if it is offered to him.

In essence, barring any unforeseen circumstances, surprises and “unpredictabilities”, John Kerry is on his way to winning the Democratic nomination for the presidency of United States. No wonder why the Republicans have intensified their attacks on Kerry cautiously believing that he would be likely the nominee of the Democrats. Since nothing is assured in politics, stay tuned for part two of this series. In part two of the series, I will share with you the outcome and analysis of the Super Tuesday Primaries that will hold on Tuesday, March 2, 2004.

US Presidential Elections: The American Process (6)

US Presidential Elections: The American Process (5)

US presidential elections: The American process (3)

US presidential elections The American: Process (2)

US presidential elections: The American process (1)

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