Acho Orabuchi

Dallas, Texas

Friday, April 9, 2004

The American political terrain has become very heated and volatile as each party’s verbal missiles and advertorial cluster bombs are being thrown here and there for maximum advantage. It is too early to predict who will win. Undoubtedly, the world is watching alertly the American electoral process because American is the number one super power and its policies tend to reverberate all over the world. Indeed, Africans, particularly Nigerians should keep a good tab on the current presidential election. The process should arouse the elated feeling in those who believe in a true democracy, equality, responsive, and responsible government. Besides, it is believed that the expected high turnout of Black American votes may tip the balance.

As the United States of America primary elections are winding down, it has now become obvious that John Forbes Kerry is the presumptive Democratic nominee after winning additional primary and caucus elections since the Super Tuesday outing. The presumptive Democratic nominee, Senator John Forbes Kerry will challenge President George Walker Bush, an incumbent Republican. The early emergence of the Democratic nominee has resulted in the airwaves roaring with early campaign adverts from both sides with charges and counter charges in relation to issues. Against this backdrop, it is being predicted that the 2004 presidential elections in the United States of America would go into the annals of American history as both the longest and most emotionally charged campaigns, with both parties ready to indulge in negative attacks.

The prevailing issues for this election are character, economy, deficit, healthcare, social security, national security, exporting jobs, Iraq, same sex marriage, deficit, etc. The Supreme Court appointment is a silent issue that may tip this election. A few Supreme Court judges will be retiring shortly coupled with the fact that some people are leery of government encroaching into their civil liberty. Some voters would prefer to vote for a candidate that is likely to appoint Supreme Court judges that would protect their civil liberty and other rights.

For simplicity, I have broken it down into the following phases: “Now” Phase, Convention/After the Convention Phase, After Labor Day Phase, Last Lap Phase, Fifty-Yard Dash Phase, and Election Day Phase.

Now Phase (Present – June)

The stakes could not be any higher; each political party—Democrats and Republican—wants to win the presidential election on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. None of the parties is leaving any stone unturned. They are literally pulling out all the stops to take advantage of the other. Also, soft and hard monies are at play in this election. The Republicans, who have an edge over the Democrats in raising hard money, are accusing the Kerry campaign of using other groups to run adverts attacking Bush in violation of 2002 Campaign Finance Reform Law. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has since filed a complaint to the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) against these groups. RNC is alleging that these groups intend to influence the November election illegally. In defense, these groups assert their rights to air their views about Bush and they said that they are operating within the 2002 Campaign Finance Reform Law. Furthermore, Kerry campaign has denied any involvement with the groups that are running those adverts attacking Bush.

Considering the fluidity of support both presidential candidates have now, what is basically happening is that both campaigns are sparring, jostling to be ahead in public polls. As a result, attacks and counter-attacks, claims and counter-claims, and charges and counter-charges have dominated the campaign so far. It is getting ugly and there is no end in sight. This is the phase to try many campaign messages; sustain the political messages that appeal to voters and drop the ones that are politically incorrect. The beauty of it all is that they are based primarily on issues unlike the Nigerian process. Nigeria is experiencing political assassinations, political violence, and campaigns devoid of ideas, issues, and ideology.

On the same day Bush was lauding increased numbers on home ownership to indicate that the US economy is growing stronger, Kerry was assailing the strongest areas of President Bush, fight against terrorism. In a speech to the International Association of Firefighters, Kerry said, “When it comes to protecting America from terrorism, this administration is big on bluster and short on action.” While Bush continues to tout his wartime credentials as assets to appeal to the electorates for votes, Kerry is working diligently to turn those assets to liabilities for Bush. Conversely, Bush campaign has been working meticulously to define Kerry, to paint him as being inconsistent and as well as weak on national defense.

Still focusing on issues, Kerry recently unveiled his economic plan to prevent outsourcing of jobs—exporting jobs. He also promised corporate tax cut and creating 10 million jobs in four years. Bush countered by touting his tax cuts as the engine that is propelling the increase in the sales of new homes with subsequent increase in the number of homeownership. He is asking the Congress to make the $1.7 trillion tax cuts permanent because he feels that the cuts are helping boost home sales.

It is pertinent to note that while the candidates are accentuating their strengths, they are at the same time attacking each other on issues. Meanwhile, Kerry is allowing Bush to define him. If Bush succeeds in painting Kerry as tax and spend liberal who waffles on issues, that may throw Kerry in a deep political hole that may prove impossible to climb out from and consequently lead Bush to re-election. It appears that Bush is succeeding in setting the tone only to see Kerry react to issues raised about him. So far Bush is maintaining the altitude and shoring up support from the conservative Democrats and swing voters. Undoubtedly, both candidates are courting in their unique ways minority groups, particularly Black voters.

In this period, defining the opponent this early, no matter how difficult it may be, with an indelible label would be a classic way to assure victory in November. Not only that this would help bolster and shore up support from the party faithful, but from the independents and members of the opponent’s party who are leery of their party’s candidate. To just accomplish this feat, the power of money will be appreciated and it will be to Bush’s advantage, whose war chest is much deeper than Kerry’s. In any case, both candidates will continue to make policy statements coupled with incessant campaign adverts in the battleground states. While these political gambits are going on, campaign insiders are strategizing with both eyes on the polls and electoral map. Judging from the mood of the nation coupled with the huge outlay of resources on campaign adverts by the Bush campaign, it appears that President Bush has the upper hand at the moment. However, the political climate is charged and volatile.

According to the Cable News Network (CNN) report, “New estimates from TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, CNN's consultant on ad spending, showed that between March 3 and March 14, the Bush campaign spent at least $8.2 million on ads -- more than 26 times as much as the estimated $310,000 spent by the Kerry campaign in the same period………In a two-way match-up, Bush led Kerry 46 percent to 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. A month ago in the same poll, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 43 percent.”

It is my opinion that seventy percent of the chances of winning or losing the election in November will be determined by what each candidate does or does not do in this phase. This is critical stage of the campaign season. John Kerry may defy tradition and name his running mate now to help him with his campaign.

Convention/After the Convention Phase (July – September 6)

This is the period for both convention preparation and actual national convention for both parties. This is when the parties officially nominate their presidential candidates. In addition, the parties tend to unify behind their candidates, energize their base, package and sell their platform on issues to the electorate. In so doing, they tend to maximize media coverage for maximum after-convention bounce.

While the Democrats will hold their party’s National Convention in Boston, Massachusetts on July 26-29, 2004 to officially ratify their nominee among other things; the Republican National Convention will be in New York, New York on August 30 – September 2, 2004. Traditionally, each party respects each other’s convention with tacit campaign. The party that is holding a convention tends to enjoy the limelight during the period. Perhaps, this is why each candidate always enjoys a bounce in polls immediately after the convention.

After Labor Day Phase (September 7 – October 30)

This is it! Traditionally, the end of Labor Day Holiday signals the official beginning of the fall campaign. This year’s general elections are different. In any case, intense campaign will ensue immediately after the Labor Day Holiday, Monday, September 6, 2004, with each campaign experiencing a defining moment. We may see one or two presidential debates during this phase. This phase could be characterized as an all-out campaign with great intensity. The political strategists and campaign gurus will be at work in both campaigns testing their astuteness.

Last Lap Phase (October 30 – October 31)

This phase may witness a presidential debate. Internal polling by the presidential candidates will be intensified with a fixation on the battleground states and the electoral map. Political realities will begin to set in during this period; candidates will not only concede some states during this period, but also will begin to shift and move resources to the states where the resources will be optimized.

Fifty-Yard Dash Phase (November 1, 2004Twenty-four hours to the election)

Using sports analogy, November 1, 2004 could be characterized as the fifty-yard dash. The candidates have to give it all they have in the name of victory. There will be a massive get out to vote drive by both campaigns. With this election being as close as it is, the voter turnout could make a significant difference.

Election Day Phase (Tuesday, November 2, 2004)

Both campaigns will intensify get out to vote drama by working the phones tirelessly. The candidates will be making their last minute pleas for votes.

Fascinatingly, the race for the White House is getting tougher by the day. The duo seems to be running neck and neck. Baring any unforeseen circumstances, the presidential election will go down to the wire and will be chiefly decided on four issues: character, jobs, Iraq, and Supreme Court appointments. Additionally, the high turnout of African American votes may make a difference in this closely tight presidential race.

US presidential elections: The American process (Part I)

US presidential elections: The American Process (Part 2)